广东石油化工学院学报

为加强瓶装液化石油气（LPG）事故防治，首先，基于2019—2024年间我国90起瓶装LPG事故典型案例，采用数理统计法分析其时间、空间、等级与类型的特征和规律；其次，构建事故STAMP模型，从政府监管、企业管理、人员行为、设备与环境4个层级的11项子系统处辨识18项事故致因；再次，采用卡方检验、让步比、Cramer's V系数分析相邻层级事故致因间的相关性，运用灰色关联分析（GRA）探讨各层级致因与事故间的关联程度。结果表明：瓶装LPG事故“频率高、地域广、后果重”特征显著；夏季和每日6:00—8:59为事故高发时间；华东为事故频发地区，餐饮场所和居民用户为事故的频发地点；“餐饮商户违规用气型”在4种事故类型中最常见，占比52.22%；相邻层级事故致因间存在14组显著因果关系，形成由经营者和用气者主导的2条关键路径，又以后者为主，结论认为：应统筹地方政府、瓶装LPG经营企业和用户企业等主体构建“协同—合作”双态防治模式，聚焦STAMP模型、2条关键路径和3项核心事故诱因采取针对性的安全控制策略。

To strengthen the prevention and control of bottled Liquefied Petroleum Gas(LPG) accidents, firstly, the mathematical statistical methods were applied to analyze the characteristics and laws of 90 typical accident cases between 2019 to 2024 in China, from the perspective of time, space, level and type. Secondly, the STAMP model for bottled LPG accidents was constructed, then 18 typical accident causal factors were identified from 11 subsystems at 4 levels: government regulation, company management, human behaviors, equipment and environment. Thirdly, the correlation between accident causal factors at adjacent levels was analyzed by chi-square test, odds ratio, and Cramer's V coefficient, and the grey relation analysis method was used to explore the correlation between different accident causal factors at each level and accidents. The results indicate that the bottled LPG accidents have significant characteristics of high frequency, wide geographical coverage, and severe consequences. Summer and 6:00-8:59 are the peak periods for accidents. East China is the region with the highest frequency of accidents, while catering enterprises and residential households are the most frequent locations for accidents. The most common type of bottled LPG accidents among the four types is the violation of gas usage by catering merchants, which accounting for 52.22%. There are a total of 14 significant causal relationships between accident causal factors at adjacent levels, forming two key paths dominated by bottled LPG operators and users, with the latter being the main one. It is concluded that a collaborative-cooperation dual-mode accident prevention model should be established by coordinating local governments, bottled LPG operators, and user enterprises, then the targeted safety control measures should be implemented based on the STAMP model, 2 key accident paths and 3 core accident causal factors.